Sun 27 Sep 2026 · 23:20 UTCNot investment advice. Automated, AI and OSINT based. May contain errors.
75% of baseline

Bosphorus

4High

Transit data to 28 Aug · IMF PortWatch derived, lags a few days

This week· updates weekly
Transits

75% of baseline

64 a day against a 12-month average of 86

Week on week

+6.1%

Trend

7-day average 64 transits/day, down 25% vs the trailing 12-month average. Source: IMF PortWatch, data to 2026-08-28.

Compare two weeks· updates weekly

Compare two weeks

53 weeks held

99.1 transits/day in the week to 2025-08-29 (114% of baseline), against 64.4 in the week to 2026-08-28 (75% of baseline) — down 35%.

Seven-day averages, sampled weekly, from IMF PortWatch's published daily series, 2025-08-29 to 2026-08-28. One baseline across every week, so a share moves for one reason only. Reconstructed from the published record, not an archive this product watched accumulate.

Disruption episodes · 3· updates as it happens

Disrupted for 45 days, since 2026-07-15, running 24% below baseline on average.

3 disruption episodes in the last 12 months; the current one began 2026-07-15 and has run 45 days.

2026-07-15 to now, 45 days and counting

24% below baseline on average, with a trough of 38 transits a day.

2026-02-18 to 2026-02-25, 8 days

17% below baseline on average, with a trough of 53 transits a day.

2025-12-28 to 2026-01-10, 14 days

17% below baseline on average, with a trough of 5 transits a day.

The market lens· standing

The only sea route out of the Black Sea, carrying Russian and Kazakh crude and products plus Ukrainian grain. Turkey administers passage under the Montreux Convention, which also governs warship access. Friction here shows up as tanker queues, insurance arguments, and grain-corridor risk premia.

What to watch· standing

Tanker queue lengths and Turkish insurance-documentation requirements.

The state of the Black Sea grain corridor and strikes on Ukrainian ports upstream.

Montreux-related decisions on warship passage during escalation.

Recent signals touching Bosphorus· updates as it happens
No recent signals name this chokepoint. Quiet is information too.