Track record

Will the latest Western sanctions designation on the oil producer's banking and shipping intermediaries actually be enforced this quarter, rather than announced and left unenforced?

Resolves Resolves 'occurred' if, within 90 days of generation, public reporting (OFAC actions, Lloyd's List, tanker-tracking, or a G7 statement) shows the designated intermediaries losing banking, insurance, or shipping access such that sanctioned-cargo flows measurably fall. Resolves 'did_not_occur' if the designation stays nominal and flows continue. Source of record: OFAC press releases and Lloyd's List.

Will OPEC+ agree a substantial coordinated production cut at its next ministerial, rather than a token or no measure?

Resolves Resolves 'occurred' if OPEC+ announces a coordinated cut of at least 1 million barrels per day in genuine supply (not a paper reallocation of quotas already exceeded). Resolves 'partial' for a smaller or largely-paper cut, 'did_not_occur' for no cut. Source of record: the official OPEC ministerial communique.

Will there be a major military escalation at the Strait of Hormuz this quarter (a state-level strike, seizure campaign, or attempted closure), rather than continued brinkmanship?

Resolves Resolves 'occurred' if, within 90 days, there is a state-attributed military action that materially disrupts Hormuz transit (a naval engagement, a sustained seizure campaign, mining, or a declared closure) confirmed by two of: IMF PortWatch transit data, JMIC/UKMTO advisories, or major-wire reporting. Resolves 'did_not_occur' if brinkmanship continues without a material transit disruption. Source of record: IMF PortWatch plus UKMTO advisories.

Will a formal Russia-Ukraine ceasefire hold for 30 consecutive days or more before the end of 2026?

Resolves Resolves 'occurred' if a publicly-declared ceasefire holds without major hostilities for at least 30 consecutive days before 31 December 2026, per OSCE or major-wire confirmation. Resolves 'did_not_occur' otherwise. Source of record: OSCE reporting and major wires.

Will the United States and Iran reach a formal nuclear agreement by the end of Q4 2026?

Resolves Resolves 'occurred' on a signed or publicly-confirmed US-Iran nuclear agreement (a JCPOA successor or interim deal) by 31 December 2026. Resolves 'did_not_occur' otherwise. Source of record: US State Department and IAEA statements.

Will the United States impose broad new tariffs on Chinese goods this quarter?

Resolves Resolves 'occurred' if the US announces new tariffs covering at least USD 50 billion of annual Chinese imports within 90 days. Resolves 'did_not_occur' otherwise. Source of record: USTR announcements and the Federal Register.

Will the United States materially ease oil sanctions on Venezuela this quarter?

Resolves Resolves 'occurred' if the US issues a general or sector license that measurably raises Venezuelan crude exports within 90 days. Resolves 'did_not_occur' if sanctions stay in force or licensing stays narrow. Source of record: OFAC actions and Venezuelan export data.

Will Bab el-Mandeb shipping transits recover to at least 80 percent of their pre-2024 baseline before the end of Q4 2026?

Resolves Resolves 'occurred' if IMF PortWatch shows Bab el-Mandeb daily transits at 80 percent or more of the 2023 average, sustained over a 30-day window, before 31 December 2026. Resolves 'did_not_occur' otherwise. Source of record: IMF PortWatch.

Will China conduct a major military exercise around Taiwan this quarter?

Resolves Resolves 'occurred' if China runs a named large-scale joint exercise encircling or blockading Taiwan (Joint Sword scale or larger) within 90 days, confirmed by Taiwan's MND and major wires. Resolves 'did_not_occur' otherwise. Source of record: Taiwan Ministry of National Defense.