Fri 28 Aug 2026 · 14:00 UTCNot investment advice. Automated, AI and OSINT based. May contain errors.
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Climatology read, countedcommodities · shipping9 Aug
Will Bab el-Mandeb weekly transit fall below 75 percent of its 12-month baseline in any PortWatch week from 11 August to 4 September 2026?
The counted rate
0 of 12observations, 0%
The read
very unlikely10%
Counted over15 May 2026 to 31 July 2026, 12 observations
Serieschokepoints.bab_el_mandeb.transit_pct_of_baseline
Source of recordchokepoints row id='bab_el_mandeb' (transit_count, baseline, history), written from IMF PortWatch
What the count means
Weeks below 75 percent of the trailing 12-month baseline, over the 12 PortWatch weeks held at seed time. No week came close: the minimum is 82 percent. A zero numerator is not zero probability, so the point is set at a floor reflecting one observation window rather than at 0, and the band stops at 'very unlikely' because ICD 203 does not assert impossibility.
Recounted from the series just now: 0 of 9, against the frozen 0 of 12. The read is shown as it was frozen; the enumerated observations below are the series as it stands today.
Horizon by 8 September 2026 · resolves 2026-09-08
The band, and what any point on it would mean5 to 20 per cent
050100
10%very unlikelythe read as it stands
Move across the band to see what another probability would be claiming against the criterion this read was frozen with.
Earlier reads First read, no history yet. This question has been generated once, so there is no earlier band position to show and none has been drawn.
When each observation arrived0 of 9 counted
2026-05-152026-07-31
The evidence: every observation the count rests on9 observations, % of baseline
each weekly observation tested below 75% of baseline. An observation marked counted is one below 75% of baseline; those are the 0 that make up the numerator. Every figure below is in % of baseline. The series behind this reaches 2026-08-21.
012026-06-0535.7 transits against a 34.9 baseline102.29
022026-06-1237.3 transits against a 34.9 baseline106.88
032026-06-1936.4 transits against a 34.9 baseline104.30
042026-06-2636.4 transits against a 34.9 baseline104.30
052026-07-0335 transits against a 34.9 baseline100.29
062026-07-1029.9 transits against a 34.9 baseline85.67
072026-07-1742.3 transits against a 34.9 baseline121.20
082026-07-2432.7 transits against a 34.9 baseline93.70
092026-07-3129.6 transits against a 34.9 baseline84.81
The same 9 observations as a table
| No | Date | Observation | Figure | Unit | Counted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 2026-06-05 | 35.7 transits against a 34.9 baseline | 102.29 | % of baseline | no |
| 02 | 2026-06-12 | 37.3 transits against a 34.9 baseline | 106.88 | % of baseline | no |
| 03 | 2026-06-19 | 36.4 transits against a 34.9 baseline | 104.30 | % of baseline | no |
| 04 | 2026-06-26 | 36.4 transits against a 34.9 baseline | 104.30 | % of baseline | no |
| 05 | 2026-07-03 | 35 transits against a 34.9 baseline | 100.29 | % of baseline | no |
| 06 | 2026-07-10 | 29.9 transits against a 34.9 baseline | 85.67 | % of baseline | no |
| 07 | 2026-07-17 | 42.3 transits against a 34.9 baseline | 121.20 | % of baseline | no |
| 08 | 2026-07-24 | 32.7 transits against a 34.9 baseline | 93.70 | % of baseline | no |
| 09 | 2026-07-31 | 29.6 transits against a 34.9 baseline | 84.81 | % of baseline | no |
ResolvesResolves OCCURRED if any PortWatch weekly observation with a week-ending label from 2026-08-11 to 2026-09-04 inclusive shows Bab el-Mandeb transit strictly below 75 percent of the trailing 12-month baseline recorded on the chokepoints row. Resolves DID NOT OCCUR if no such week is below 75 percent. Held as PARTIAL if the PortWatch series does not cover 2026-09-04 or the chokepoints row is marked stale. Comparison is on the unrounded ratio.
Source of recordchokepoints row id='bab_el_mandeb' (transit_count, baseline, history), written from IMF PortWatch
Settles on2026-09-08