Fri 28 Aug 2026 · 13:59 UTCNot investment advice. Automated, AI and OSINT based. May contain errors.
← Foresight
Climatology read, countedRates · FX9 Aug
Will the OFAC Specially Designated Nationals list carry at least 50 more entities on 8 September 2026 than on 11 August 2026?
The counted rate
2 of 2observations, 100%
The read
likely70%
Counted over12 June 2026 to 7 August 2026, 2 observations
Seriessanctions_snapshots.ofac_sdn.entity_count
Source of recordsanctions_snapshots where source='ofac_sdn' (entity_count, snapshot_date), parsed from the OFAC SDN XML
What the count means
Non-overlapping 28-day windows on record in which the SDN entity count rose by at least 50: 2026-06-12 to 2026-07-10 +64, 2026-07-10 to 2026-08-07 +60. n=2 is a thin reference class and is the honest one: overlapping daily windows give 11 of 12 but are not independent, and several straddle the 17 Jul to 5 Aug ingest outage. The 58-day mean is 2.3 designations per day, which over a 28-day window centres on 65 against a threshold of 50.
Recounted from the series just now: 2 of 2. Matches the frozen reference class. Every observation is enumerated below.
Horizon by 8 September 2026 · resolves 2026-09-08
The band, and what any point on it would mean55 to 80 per cent
050100
70%likelythe read as it stands
Move across the band to see what another probability would be claiming against the criterion this read was frozen with.
Earlier reads First read, no history yet. This question has been generated once, so there is no earlier band position to show and none has been drawn.
When each observation arrived2 of 2 counted
2026-06-122026-08-07
The evidence: every observation the count rests on2 observations, over 28 days
each non-overlapping 28-day window tested for a rise of at least 50. An observation marked counted is one a rise of at least 50; those are the 2 that make up the numerator. Every figure below is in over 28 days. The series behind this reaches 2026-08-07.
012026-07-102026-06-12 19,065 to 2026-07-10 19,129+64counted
022026-08-072026-07-10 19,129 to 2026-08-07 19,189+60counted
The same 2 observations as a table
| No | Date | Observation | Figure | Unit | Counted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 2026-07-10 | 2026-06-12 19,065 to 2026-07-10 19,129 | +64 | over 28 days | yes |
| 02 | 2026-08-07 | 2026-07-10 19,129 to 2026-08-07 19,189 | +60 | over 28 days | yes |
ResolvesResolves OCCURRED if the OFAC SDN entity_count in the last sanctions_snapshots row on or before 2026-09-08 exceeds the count in the first row on or after 2026-08-11 by 50 or more. Resolves DID NOT OCCUR if the difference is less than 50. Held as PARTIAL if fewer than two snapshots exist in the window or the series does not reach 2026-09-08.
Source of recordsanctions_snapshots where source='ofac_sdn' (entity_count, snapshot_date), parsed from the OFAC SDN XML
Settles on2026-09-08