Fri 28 Aug 2026 · 13:59 UTCNot investment advice. Automated, AI and OSINT based. May contain errors.
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Climatology read, countedcommodities · energy9 Aug
Will Bosphorus weekly transit stay below 80 percent of its 12-month baseline in every PortWatch week from 11 August to 4 September 2026?
The counted rate
2 of 12observations, 17%
The read
likely65%
Counted over15 May 2026 to 31 July 2026, 12 observations
Serieschokepoints.bosphorus.transit_pct_of_baseline
Source of recordchokepoints row id='bosphorus' (transit_count, baseline, history), written from IMF PortWatch
What the count means
Weeks below 80 percent of the trailing 12-month baseline, over the 12 PortWatch weeks held at seed time. Both hits are the two most recent weeks and the series is falling monotonically into them, so the per-week rate understates persistence: the point is set above the rate because the question asks whether an established depression continues, not whether a new one starts.
Recounted from the series just now: 2 of 9, against the frozen 2 of 12. The read is shown as it was frozen; the enumerated observations below are the series as it stands today.
Horizon by 8 September 2026 · resolves 2026-09-08
The band, and what any point on it would mean55 to 80 per cent
050100
65%likelythe read as it stands
Move across the band to see what another probability would be claiming against the criterion this read was frozen with.
Earlier reads First read, no history yet. This question has been generated once, so there is no earlier band position to show and none has been drawn.
When each observation arrived2 of 9 counted
2026-05-152026-07-31
The evidence: every observation the count rests on9 observations, % of baseline
each weekly observation tested below 80% of baseline. An observation marked counted is one below 80% of baseline; those are the 2 that make up the numerator. Every figure below is in % of baseline. The series behind this reaches 2026-08-21.
012026-06-0580 transits against a 86.6 baseline92.38
022026-06-1281 transits against a 86.6 baseline93.53
032026-06-1982.7 transits against a 86.6 baseline95.50
042026-06-2682.1 transits against a 86.6 baseline94.80
052026-07-0377.9 transits against a 86.6 baseline89.95
062026-07-1081.6 transits against a 86.6 baseline94.23
072026-07-1776.9 transits against a 86.6 baseline88.80
082026-07-2468.9 transits against a 86.6 baseline79.56counted
092026-07-3161.1 transits against a 86.6 baseline70.55counted
The same 9 observations as a table
| No | Date | Observation | Figure | Unit | Counted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 2026-06-05 | 80 transits against a 86.6 baseline | 92.38 | % of baseline | no |
| 02 | 2026-06-12 | 81 transits against a 86.6 baseline | 93.53 | % of baseline | no |
| 03 | 2026-06-19 | 82.7 transits against a 86.6 baseline | 95.50 | % of baseline | no |
| 04 | 2026-06-26 | 82.1 transits against a 86.6 baseline | 94.80 | % of baseline | no |
| 05 | 2026-07-03 | 77.9 transits against a 86.6 baseline | 89.95 | % of baseline | no |
| 06 | 2026-07-10 | 81.6 transits against a 86.6 baseline | 94.23 | % of baseline | no |
| 07 | 2026-07-17 | 76.9 transits against a 86.6 baseline | 88.80 | % of baseline | no |
| 08 | 2026-07-24 | 68.9 transits against a 86.6 baseline | 79.56 | % of baseline | yes |
| 09 | 2026-07-31 | 61.1 transits against a 86.6 baseline | 70.55 | % of baseline | yes |
ResolvesResolves OCCURRED if every PortWatch weekly observation with a week-ending label from 2026-08-11 to 2026-09-04 inclusive shows Bosphorus transit strictly below 80 percent of the trailing 12-month baseline recorded on the chokepoints row. Resolves DID NOT OCCUR if any such week is at or above 80 percent. Held as PARTIAL if the PortWatch series does not cover 2026-09-04 or the chokepoints row is marked stale. Comparison is on the unrounded ratio.
Source of recordchokepoints row id='bosphorus' (transit_count, baseline, history), written from IMF PortWatch
Settles on2026-09-08