Fri 28 Aug 2026 · 13:59 UTCNot investment advice. Automated, AI and OSINT based. May contain errors.
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Climatology read, countedEquities · FX9 Aug
Will 20 or more scored sovereigns sit at composite risk level 3 or above in Varsko's country scoring on 8 September 2026?
The counted rate
0 of 111observations, 0%
The read
unlikely25%
Counted over16 April 2026 to 4 August 2026, 111 observations
Seriescountry_risk_history.level_3_plus_count
Source of recordcountry_risk_history (iso3, date, composite_level), the daily append from Varsko's composite scoring
What the count means
Days on which 20 or more scored sovereigns sat at composite level 3 or above, out of days scored. The count has never reached 20; its maximum is 16 and it stands at 16 of 132 today. Two cautions travel with this rate. The count grew partly because coverage grew from 43 to 132 scored sovereigns, so historical growth is not all escalation; and underneath a flat count there is real churn, 23 escalations against 15 de-escalations over the trailing 30 days, which is why the point is not set at the floor.
Recounted from the series just now: 0 of 111. Matches the frozen reference class. Every observation is enumerated below.
Horizon by 8 September 2026 · resolves 2026-09-08
The band, and what any point on it would mean20 to 45 per cent
050100
25%unlikelythe read as it stands
Move across the band to see what another probability would be claiming against the criterion this read was frozen with.
Earlier reads First read, no history yet. This question has been generated once, so there is no earlier band position to show and none has been drawn.
When each observation arrived0 of 111 counted
2026-04-162026-08-04
The evidence: every observation the count rests on111 observations, rows where composite_level >= 3
each scored day counted, tested 20 or more where composite_level >= 3. An observation marked counted is one 20 or more where composite_level >= 3; those are the 0 that make up the numerator. Every figure below is in rows where composite_level >= 3. The series behind this reaches 2026-08-04.
012026-04-16of 43 sovereigns scored that day0
022026-04-17of 43 sovereigns scored that day0
032026-04-18of 43 sovereigns scored that day0
042026-04-19of 43 sovereigns scored that day0
052026-04-20of 43 sovereigns scored that day0
062026-04-21of 44 sovereigns scored that day0
072026-04-22of 45 sovereigns scored that day0
082026-04-23of 47 sovereigns scored that day0
092026-04-24of 47 sovereigns scored that day0
102026-04-25of 47 sovereigns scored that day0
112026-04-26of 47 sovereigns scored that day0
122026-04-27of 48 sovereigns scored that day0
132026-04-28of 48 sovereigns scored that day0
142026-04-29of 49 sovereigns scored that day0
152026-04-30of 50 sovereigns scored that day0
162026-05-01of 50 sovereigns scored that day0
172026-05-02of 50 sovereigns scored that day0
182026-05-03of 51 sovereigns scored that day0
192026-05-04of 52 sovereigns scored that day0
202026-05-05of 53 sovereigns scored that day0
212026-05-06of 53 sovereigns scored that day0
222026-05-07of 57 sovereigns scored that day0
232026-05-08of 57 sovereigns scored that day0
242026-05-09of 57 sovereigns scored that day0
252026-05-10of 58 sovereigns scored that day3
262026-05-11of 58 sovereigns scored that day3
272026-05-12of 58 sovereigns scored that day3
282026-05-13of 59 sovereigns scored that day3
292026-05-14of 59 sovereigns scored that day3
302026-05-15of 59 sovereigns scored that day3
312026-05-16of 59 sovereigns scored that day3
322026-05-17of 61 sovereigns scored that day3
332026-05-18of 62 sovereigns scored that day3
342026-05-19of 62 sovereigns scored that day3
352026-05-20of 68 sovereigns scored that day3
362026-05-21of 71 sovereigns scored that day3
372026-05-22of 72 sovereigns scored that day3
382026-05-23of 72 sovereigns scored that day3
392026-05-24of 74 sovereigns scored that day3
402026-05-25of 77 sovereigns scored that day3
412026-05-26of 78 sovereigns scored that day3
422026-05-27of 78 sovereigns scored that day3
432026-05-28of 80 sovereigns scored that day3
442026-05-29of 80 sovereigns scored that day3
452026-05-30of 77 sovereigns scored that day3
462026-05-31of 77 sovereigns scored that day3
472026-06-01of 77 sovereigns scored that day3
482026-06-02of 77 sovereigns scored that day3
492026-06-03of 80 sovereigns scored that day3
502026-06-04of 81 sovereigns scored that day3
512026-06-05of 83 sovereigns scored that day3
522026-06-06of 80 sovereigns scored that day3
532026-06-07of 81 sovereigns scored that day3
542026-06-08of 85 sovereigns scored that day3
552026-06-09of 87 sovereigns scored that day0
562026-06-10of 92 sovereigns scored that day0
572026-06-11of 102 sovereigns scored that day2
582026-06-12of 116 sovereigns scored that day3
592026-06-13of 117 sovereigns scored that day3
602026-06-14of 122 sovereigns scored that day4
612026-06-15of 126 sovereigns scored that day8
622026-06-16of 128 sovereigns scored that day9
632026-06-17of 127 sovereigns scored that day9
642026-06-18of 127 sovereigns scored that day9
652026-06-19of 126 sovereigns scored that day12
662026-06-20of 129 sovereigns scored that day12
672026-06-21of 128 sovereigns scored that day12
682026-06-22of 128 sovereigns scored that day12
692026-06-23of 126 sovereigns scored that day13
702026-06-24of 124 sovereigns scored that day13
712026-06-25of 124 sovereigns scored that day13
722026-06-26of 124 sovereigns scored that day12
732026-06-27of 124 sovereigns scored that day12
742026-06-28of 124 sovereigns scored that day13
752026-06-29of 124 sovereigns scored that day12
762026-06-30of 124 sovereigns scored that day12
772026-07-01of 124 sovereigns scored that day12
782026-07-02of 124 sovereigns scored that day12
792026-07-03of 124 sovereigns scored that day12
802026-07-04of 124 sovereigns scored that day12
812026-07-05of 124 sovereigns scored that day12
822026-07-06of 126 sovereigns scored that day13
832026-07-07of 126 sovereigns scored that day13
842026-07-08of 125 sovereigns scored that day13
852026-07-09of 125 sovereigns scored that day13
862026-07-10of 122 sovereigns scored that day13
872026-07-11of 118 sovereigns scored that day12
882026-07-12of 103 sovereigns scored that day12
892026-07-13of 104 sovereigns scored that day13
902026-07-14of 99 sovereigns scored that day13
912026-07-15of 92 sovereigns scored that day15
922026-07-16of 105 sovereigns scored that day15
932026-07-17of 131 sovereigns scored that day14
942026-07-18of 133 sovereigns scored that day15
952026-07-19of 133 sovereigns scored that day13
962026-07-20of 131 sovereigns scored that day13
972026-07-21of 133 sovereigns scored that day13
982026-07-22of 133 sovereigns scored that day13
992026-07-23of 133 sovereigns scored that day14
1002026-07-24of 133 sovereigns scored that day16
1012026-07-25of 133 sovereigns scored that day16
1022026-07-26of 134 sovereigns scored that day16
1032026-07-27of 135 sovereigns scored that day16
1042026-07-28of 138 sovereigns scored that day16
1052026-07-29of 138 sovereigns scored that day16
1062026-07-30of 137 sovereigns scored that day16
1072026-07-31of 137 sovereigns scored that day16
1082026-08-01of 137 sovereigns scored that day16
1092026-08-02of 137 sovereigns scored that day16
1102026-08-03of 137 sovereigns scored that day16
1112026-08-04of 132 sovereigns scored that day16
The same 111 observations as a table
| No | Date | Observation | Figure | Unit | Counted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 2026-04-16 | of 43 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 02 | 2026-04-17 | of 43 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 03 | 2026-04-18 | of 43 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 04 | 2026-04-19 | of 43 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 05 | 2026-04-20 | of 43 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 06 | 2026-04-21 | of 44 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 07 | 2026-04-22 | of 45 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 08 | 2026-04-23 | of 47 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 09 | 2026-04-24 | of 47 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 10 | 2026-04-25 | of 47 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 11 | 2026-04-26 | of 47 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 12 | 2026-04-27 | of 48 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 13 | 2026-04-28 | of 48 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 14 | 2026-04-29 | of 49 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 15 | 2026-04-30 | of 50 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 16 | 2026-05-01 | of 50 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 17 | 2026-05-02 | of 50 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 18 | 2026-05-03 | of 51 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 19 | 2026-05-04 | of 52 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 20 | 2026-05-05 | of 53 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 21 | 2026-05-06 | of 53 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 22 | 2026-05-07 | of 57 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 23 | 2026-05-08 | of 57 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 24 | 2026-05-09 | of 57 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 25 | 2026-05-10 | of 58 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 26 | 2026-05-11 | of 58 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 27 | 2026-05-12 | of 58 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 28 | 2026-05-13 | of 59 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 29 | 2026-05-14 | of 59 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 30 | 2026-05-15 | of 59 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 31 | 2026-05-16 | of 59 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 32 | 2026-05-17 | of 61 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 33 | 2026-05-18 | of 62 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 34 | 2026-05-19 | of 62 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 35 | 2026-05-20 | of 68 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 36 | 2026-05-21 | of 71 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 37 | 2026-05-22 | of 72 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 38 | 2026-05-23 | of 72 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 39 | 2026-05-24 | of 74 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 40 | 2026-05-25 | of 77 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 41 | 2026-05-26 | of 78 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 42 | 2026-05-27 | of 78 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 43 | 2026-05-28 | of 80 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 44 | 2026-05-29 | of 80 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 45 | 2026-05-30 | of 77 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 46 | 2026-05-31 | of 77 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 47 | 2026-06-01 | of 77 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 48 | 2026-06-02 | of 77 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 49 | 2026-06-03 | of 80 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 50 | 2026-06-04 | of 81 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 51 | 2026-06-05 | of 83 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 52 | 2026-06-06 | of 80 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 53 | 2026-06-07 | of 81 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 54 | 2026-06-08 | of 85 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 55 | 2026-06-09 | of 87 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 56 | 2026-06-10 | of 92 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 57 | 2026-06-11 | of 102 sovereigns scored that day | 2 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 58 | 2026-06-12 | of 116 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 59 | 2026-06-13 | of 117 sovereigns scored that day | 3 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 60 | 2026-06-14 | of 122 sovereigns scored that day | 4 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 61 | 2026-06-15 | of 126 sovereigns scored that day | 8 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 62 | 2026-06-16 | of 128 sovereigns scored that day | 9 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 63 | 2026-06-17 | of 127 sovereigns scored that day | 9 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 64 | 2026-06-18 | of 127 sovereigns scored that day | 9 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 65 | 2026-06-19 | of 126 sovereigns scored that day | 12 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 66 | 2026-06-20 | of 129 sovereigns scored that day | 12 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 67 | 2026-06-21 | of 128 sovereigns scored that day | 12 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 68 | 2026-06-22 | of 128 sovereigns scored that day | 12 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 69 | 2026-06-23 | of 126 sovereigns scored that day | 13 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 70 | 2026-06-24 | of 124 sovereigns scored that day | 13 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 71 | 2026-06-25 | of 124 sovereigns scored that day | 13 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 72 | 2026-06-26 | of 124 sovereigns scored that day | 12 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 73 | 2026-06-27 | of 124 sovereigns scored that day | 12 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 74 | 2026-06-28 | of 124 sovereigns scored that day | 13 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 75 | 2026-06-29 | of 124 sovereigns scored that day | 12 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 76 | 2026-06-30 | of 124 sovereigns scored that day | 12 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 77 | 2026-07-01 | of 124 sovereigns scored that day | 12 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 78 | 2026-07-02 | of 124 sovereigns scored that day | 12 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 79 | 2026-07-03 | of 124 sovereigns scored that day | 12 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 80 | 2026-07-04 | of 124 sovereigns scored that day | 12 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 81 | 2026-07-05 | of 124 sovereigns scored that day | 12 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 82 | 2026-07-06 | of 126 sovereigns scored that day | 13 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 83 | 2026-07-07 | of 126 sovereigns scored that day | 13 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 84 | 2026-07-08 | of 125 sovereigns scored that day | 13 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 85 | 2026-07-09 | of 125 sovereigns scored that day | 13 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 86 | 2026-07-10 | of 122 sovereigns scored that day | 13 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 87 | 2026-07-11 | of 118 sovereigns scored that day | 12 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 88 | 2026-07-12 | of 103 sovereigns scored that day | 12 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 89 | 2026-07-13 | of 104 sovereigns scored that day | 13 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 90 | 2026-07-14 | of 99 sovereigns scored that day | 13 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 91 | 2026-07-15 | of 92 sovereigns scored that day | 15 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 92 | 2026-07-16 | of 105 sovereigns scored that day | 15 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 93 | 2026-07-17 | of 131 sovereigns scored that day | 14 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 94 | 2026-07-18 | of 133 sovereigns scored that day | 15 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 95 | 2026-07-19 | of 133 sovereigns scored that day | 13 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 96 | 2026-07-20 | of 131 sovereigns scored that day | 13 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 97 | 2026-07-21 | of 133 sovereigns scored that day | 13 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 98 | 2026-07-22 | of 133 sovereigns scored that day | 13 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 99 | 2026-07-23 | of 133 sovereigns scored that day | 14 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 100 | 2026-07-24 | of 133 sovereigns scored that day | 16 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 101 | 2026-07-25 | of 133 sovereigns scored that day | 16 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 102 | 2026-07-26 | of 134 sovereigns scored that day | 16 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 103 | 2026-07-27 | of 135 sovereigns scored that day | 16 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 104 | 2026-07-28 | of 138 sovereigns scored that day | 16 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 105 | 2026-07-29 | of 138 sovereigns scored that day | 16 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 106 | 2026-07-30 | of 137 sovereigns scored that day | 16 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 107 | 2026-07-31 | of 137 sovereigns scored that day | 16 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 108 | 2026-08-01 | of 137 sovereigns scored that day | 16 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 109 | 2026-08-02 | of 137 sovereigns scored that day | 16 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 110 | 2026-08-03 | of 137 sovereigns scored that day | 16 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
| 111 | 2026-08-04 | of 132 sovereigns scored that day | 16 | rows where composite_level >= 3 | no |
ResolvesResolves OCCURRED if 20 or more country_risk_history rows on the latest date at or before 2026-09-08 carry composite_level >= 3. Resolves DID NOT OCCUR if fewer than 20 do. Held as PARTIAL if the latest available date is more than two days before 2026-09-08.
Source of recordcountry_risk_history (iso3, date, composite_level), the daily append from Varsko's composite scoring
Settles on2026-09-08