Fri 28 Aug 2026 · 14:00 UTCNot investment advice. Automated, AI and OSINT based. May contain errors.
← Foresight
Climatology read, countedcommodities · energy9 Aug
Will Hormuz weekly transit exceed 25 percent of its 12-month baseline in any PortWatch week from 11 August to 4 September 2026?
The counted rate
3 of 12observations, 25%
The read
very unlikely20%
Counted over15 May 2026 to 31 July 2026, 12 observations
Serieschokepoints.hormuz.transit_pct_of_baseline
Source of recordchokepoints row id='hormuz' (transit_count, baseline, history), written from IMF PortWatch
What the count means
Weeks above 25 percent of the trailing 12-month baseline, over the 12 PortWatch weeks held at seed time. The three hits are one contiguous episode, not three independent draws, and the series has since returned to single digits: the point is set below the per-week rate because a repeat requires a new episode from a base of roughly 9 percent, not the continuation of an existing one.
Recounted from the series just now: 2 of 9, against the frozen 3 of 12. The read is shown as it was frozen; the enumerated observations below are the series as it stands today.
Horizon by 8 September 2026 · resolves 2026-09-08
The band, and what any point on it would mean5 to 20 per cent
050100
20%very unlikelythe read as it stands
Move across the band to see what another probability would be claiming against the criterion this read was frozen with.
Earlier reads First read, no history yet. This question has been generated once, so there is no earlier band position to show and none has been drawn.
When each observation arrived2 of 9 counted
2026-05-152026-07-31
The evidence: every observation the count rests on9 observations, % of baseline
each weekly observation tested above 25% of baseline. An observation marked counted is one above 25% of baseline; those are the 2 that make up the numerator. Every figure below is in % of baseline. The series behind this reaches 2026-08-21.
012026-06-055.1 transits against a 72.6 baseline7.02
022026-06-123 transits against a 72.6 baseline4.13
032026-06-197.7 transits against a 72.6 baseline10.61
042026-06-2629 transits against a 72.6 baseline39.94counted
052026-07-0323.4 transits against a 72.6 baseline32.23counted
062026-07-1018.1 transits against a 72.6 baseline24.93
072026-07-176.3 transits against a 72.6 baseline8.68
082026-07-244.3 transits against a 72.6 baseline5.92
092026-07-314.9 transits against a 72.6 baseline6.75
The same 9 observations as a table
| No | Date | Observation | Figure | Unit | Counted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 2026-06-05 | 5.1 transits against a 72.6 baseline | 7.02 | % of baseline | no |
| 02 | 2026-06-12 | 3 transits against a 72.6 baseline | 4.13 | % of baseline | no |
| 03 | 2026-06-19 | 7.7 transits against a 72.6 baseline | 10.61 | % of baseline | no |
| 04 | 2026-06-26 | 29 transits against a 72.6 baseline | 39.94 | % of baseline | yes |
| 05 | 2026-07-03 | 23.4 transits against a 72.6 baseline | 32.23 | % of baseline | yes |
| 06 | 2026-07-10 | 18.1 transits against a 72.6 baseline | 24.93 | % of baseline | no |
| 07 | 2026-07-17 | 6.3 transits against a 72.6 baseline | 8.68 | % of baseline | no |
| 08 | 2026-07-24 | 4.3 transits against a 72.6 baseline | 5.92 | % of baseline | no |
| 09 | 2026-07-31 | 4.9 transits against a 72.6 baseline | 6.75 | % of baseline | no |
ResolvesResolves OCCURRED if any PortWatch weekly observation with a week-ending label from 2026-08-11 to 2026-09-04 inclusive shows Hormuz transit strictly above 25 percent of the trailing 12-month baseline recorded on the chokepoints row. Resolves DID NOT OCCUR if no such week is above 25 percent. Held as PARTIAL if the PortWatch series does not cover 2026-09-04 or the chokepoints row is marked stale. Comparison is on the unrounded ratio.
Source of recordchokepoints row id='hormuz' (transit_count, baseline, history), written from IMF PortWatch
Settles on2026-09-08