Fri 28 Aug 2026 · 14:01 UTCNot investment advice. Automated, AI and OSINT based. May contain errors.
← Foresight
Climatology read, countedRates · FX9 Aug
Will the UK OFSI consolidated list entity count differ from 19,763 on any snapshot taken before 8 September 2026?
The counted rate
79 of 79observations, 100%
The read
almost no chance5%
Counted over12 June 2026 to 9 August 2026, 79 observations
Seriessanctions_snapshots.uk_ofsi.entity_count
Source of recordsanctions_snapshots where source='uk_ofsi' (entity_count, snapshot_date), line count of the OFSI consolidated CSV
What the count means
Snapshots showing no change from 19763 across 58 days: every one of them, with 1 distinct value(s) observed. The source file's own header reads "Last Updated, 03/06/2026", so the dormancy is a property of the published list rather than of the ingest. This question will look easy and is not balanced away: a forecaster who cannot say "almost no chance, and here is the n" is not calibrated either.
Recounted from the series just now: 79 of 79. Matches the frozen reference class. Every observation is enumerated below.
Horizon by 8 September 2026 · resolves 2026-09-08
The band, and what any point on it would mean1 to 5 per cent
050100
5%almost no chancethe read as it stands
Move across the band to see what another probability would be claiming against the criterion this read was frozen with.
Earlier reads First read, no history yet. This question has been generated once, so there is no earlier band position to show and none has been drawn.
When each observation arrived79 of 79 counted
2026-06-122026-08-09
The evidence: every observation the count rests on79 observations, entities
every snapshot tested against the first in the window, 19,763. An observation marked counted is one unchanged from 19,763; those are the 79 that make up the numerator. Every figure below is in entities. The series behind this reaches 2026-08-09.
012026-06-1206:40 UTC snapshot19,763counted
022026-06-1306:35 UTC snapshot19,763counted
032026-06-1406:22 UTC snapshot19,763counted
042026-06-1417:51 UTC snapshot19,763counted
052026-06-1502:42 UTC snapshot19,763counted
062026-06-1506:31 UTC snapshot19,763counted
072026-06-1606:31 UTC snapshot19,763counted
082026-06-1705:13 UTC snapshot19,763counted
092026-06-1705:33 UTC snapshot19,763counted
102026-06-1805:04 UTC snapshot19,763counted
112026-06-1805:13 UTC snapshot19,763counted
122026-06-1905:11 UTC snapshot19,763counted
132026-06-1905:13 UTC snapshot19,763counted
142026-06-2005:11 UTC snapshot19,763counted
152026-06-2005:13 UTC snapshot19,763counted
162026-06-2105:11 UTC snapshot19,763counted
172026-06-2105:13 UTC snapshot19,763counted
182026-06-2205:11 UTC snapshot19,763counted
192026-06-2205:13 UTC snapshot19,763counted
202026-06-2305:13 UTC snapshot19,763counted
212026-06-2305:47 UTC snapshot19,763counted
222026-06-2405:13 UTC snapshot19,763counted
232026-06-2405:47 UTC snapshot19,763counted
242026-06-2505:13 UTC snapshot19,763counted
252026-06-2505:47 UTC snapshot19,763counted
262026-06-2605:11 UTC snapshot19,763counted
272026-06-2605:13 UTC snapshot19,763counted
282026-06-2705:11 UTC snapshot19,763counted
292026-06-2705:13 UTC snapshot19,763counted
302026-06-2805:11 UTC snapshot19,763counted
312026-06-2805:13 UTC snapshot19,763counted
322026-06-2905:11 UTC snapshot19,763counted
332026-06-2905:13 UTC snapshot19,763counted
342026-06-3005:11 UTC snapshot19,763counted
352026-06-3005:13 UTC snapshot19,763counted
362026-07-0105:11 UTC snapshot19,763counted
372026-07-0105:13 UTC snapshot19,763counted
382026-07-0205:11 UTC snapshot19,763counted
392026-07-0205:13 UTC snapshot19,763counted
402026-07-0305:13 UTC snapshot19,763counted
412026-07-0305:31 UTC snapshot19,763counted
422026-07-0405:13 UTC snapshot19,763counted
432026-07-0405:31 UTC snapshot19,763counted
442026-07-0505:13 UTC snapshot19,763counted
452026-07-0505:31 UTC snapshot19,763counted
462026-07-0605:13 UTC snapshot19,763counted
472026-07-0605:31 UTC snapshot19,763counted
482026-07-0705:13 UTC snapshot19,763counted
492026-07-0705:31 UTC snapshot19,763counted
502026-07-0805:13 UTC snapshot19,763counted
512026-07-0805:31 UTC snapshot19,763counted
522026-07-0905:13 UTC snapshot19,763counted
532026-07-0905:31 UTC snapshot19,763counted
542026-07-1005:13 UTC snapshot19,763counted
552026-07-1005:31 UTC snapshot19,763counted
562026-07-1105:13 UTC snapshot19,763counted
572026-07-1105:31 UTC snapshot19,763counted
582026-07-1205:13 UTC snapshot19,763counted
592026-07-1205:31 UTC snapshot19,763counted
602026-07-1305:13 UTC snapshot19,763counted
612026-07-1305:31 UTC snapshot19,763counted
622026-07-1405:13 UTC snapshot19,763counted
632026-07-1405:31 UTC snapshot19,763counted
642026-07-1505:13 UTC snapshot19,763counted
652026-07-1505:31 UTC snapshot19,763counted
662026-07-1605:13 UTC snapshot19,763counted
672026-07-1605:31 UTC snapshot19,763counted
682026-07-1705:13 UTC snapshot19,763counted
692026-07-1705:31 UTC snapshot19,763counted
702026-07-1716:02 UTC snapshot19,763counted
712026-07-1716:05 UTC snapshot19,763counted
722026-07-1716:09 UTC snapshot19,763counted
732026-07-1716:10 UTC snapshot19,763counted
742026-07-2813:03 UTC snapshot19,763counted
752026-08-0505:42 UTC snapshot19,763counted
762026-08-0605:42 UTC snapshot19,763counted
772026-08-0705:10 UTC snapshot19,763counted
782026-08-0805:10 UTC snapshot19,763counted
792026-08-0905:33 UTC snapshot19,763counted
The same 79 observations as a table
| No | Date | Observation | Figure | Unit | Counted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 2026-06-12 | 06:40 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 02 | 2026-06-13 | 06:35 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 03 | 2026-06-14 | 06:22 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 04 | 2026-06-14 | 17:51 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 05 | 2026-06-15 | 02:42 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 06 | 2026-06-15 | 06:31 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 07 | 2026-06-16 | 06:31 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 08 | 2026-06-17 | 05:13 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 09 | 2026-06-17 | 05:33 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 10 | 2026-06-18 | 05:04 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 11 | 2026-06-18 | 05:13 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 12 | 2026-06-19 | 05:11 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 13 | 2026-06-19 | 05:13 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 14 | 2026-06-20 | 05:11 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 15 | 2026-06-20 | 05:13 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 16 | 2026-06-21 | 05:11 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 17 | 2026-06-21 | 05:13 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 18 | 2026-06-22 | 05:11 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 19 | 2026-06-22 | 05:13 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 20 | 2026-06-23 | 05:13 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 21 | 2026-06-23 | 05:47 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 22 | 2026-06-24 | 05:13 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 23 | 2026-06-24 | 05:47 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 24 | 2026-06-25 | 05:13 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 25 | 2026-06-25 | 05:47 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 26 | 2026-06-26 | 05:11 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 27 | 2026-06-26 | 05:13 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 28 | 2026-06-27 | 05:11 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 29 | 2026-06-27 | 05:13 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 30 | 2026-06-28 | 05:11 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 31 | 2026-06-28 | 05:13 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 32 | 2026-06-29 | 05:11 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 33 | 2026-06-29 | 05:13 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 34 | 2026-06-30 | 05:11 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 35 | 2026-06-30 | 05:13 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 36 | 2026-07-01 | 05:11 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 37 | 2026-07-01 | 05:13 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 38 | 2026-07-02 | 05:11 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 39 | 2026-07-02 | 05:13 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 40 | 2026-07-03 | 05:13 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 41 | 2026-07-03 | 05:31 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 42 | 2026-07-04 | 05:13 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 43 | 2026-07-04 | 05:31 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 44 | 2026-07-05 | 05:13 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 45 | 2026-07-05 | 05:31 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 46 | 2026-07-06 | 05:13 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 47 | 2026-07-06 | 05:31 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 48 | 2026-07-07 | 05:13 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 49 | 2026-07-07 | 05:31 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 50 | 2026-07-08 | 05:13 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 51 | 2026-07-08 | 05:31 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 52 | 2026-07-09 | 05:13 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 53 | 2026-07-09 | 05:31 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 54 | 2026-07-10 | 05:13 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 55 | 2026-07-10 | 05:31 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 56 | 2026-07-11 | 05:13 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 57 | 2026-07-11 | 05:31 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 58 | 2026-07-12 | 05:13 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 59 | 2026-07-12 | 05:31 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 60 | 2026-07-13 | 05:13 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 61 | 2026-07-13 | 05:31 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 62 | 2026-07-14 | 05:13 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 63 | 2026-07-14 | 05:31 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 64 | 2026-07-15 | 05:13 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 65 | 2026-07-15 | 05:31 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 66 | 2026-07-16 | 05:13 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 67 | 2026-07-16 | 05:31 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 68 | 2026-07-17 | 05:13 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 69 | 2026-07-17 | 05:31 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 70 | 2026-07-17 | 16:02 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 71 | 2026-07-17 | 16:05 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 72 | 2026-07-17 | 16:09 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 73 | 2026-07-17 | 16:10 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 74 | 2026-07-28 | 13:03 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 75 | 2026-08-05 | 05:42 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 76 | 2026-08-06 | 05:42 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 77 | 2026-08-07 | 05:10 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 78 | 2026-08-08 | 05:10 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
| 79 | 2026-08-09 | 05:33 UTC snapshot | 19,763 | entities | yes |
ResolvesResolves OCCURRED if any sanctions_snapshots row with source='uk_ofsi' between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-08 inclusive records an entity_count different from the count in the first row on or after 2026-08-11. Resolves DID NOT OCCUR if every such snapshot matches it. Held as PARTIAL if no snapshots exist in the window or the series does not reach 2026-09-08.
Source of recordsanctions_snapshots where source='uk_ofsi' (entity_count, snapshot_date), line count of the OFSI consolidated CSV
Settles on2026-09-08