Fri 28 Aug 2026 · 13:59 UTCNot investment advice. Automated, AI and OSINT based. May contain errors.
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Climatology read, countedEquities · FX9 Aug
Will any sovereign sit at composite risk level 5 (Severe) in Varsko's country scoring on 8 September 2026?
The counted rate
30 of 111observations, 27%
The read
very unlikely18%
Counted over16 April 2026 to 4 August 2026, 111 observations
Seriescountry_risk_history.composite_level_5_occupancy
Source of recordcountry_risk_history (iso3, date, composite_level), the daily append from Varsko's composite scoring
What the count means
Days on which at least one scored sovereign sat at composite level 5, out of days scored. The occupied days are one contiguous episode (2026-06-28 to 2026-07-27), not independent draws, and occupancy has been zero since 2026-07-28. The point is set below the raw rate because the question asks about a single future date from a currently unoccupied state, and one episode in 111 days is a low episode frequency.
Recounted from the series just now: 30 of 111. Matches the frozen reference class. Every observation is enumerated below.
Horizon by 8 September 2026 · resolves 2026-09-08
The band, and what any point on it would mean5 to 20 per cent
050100
18%very unlikelythe read as it stands
Move across the band to see what another probability would be claiming against the criterion this read was frozen with.
Earlier reads First read, no history yet. This question has been generated once, so there is no earlier band position to show and none has been drawn.
When each observation arrived30 of 111 counted
2026-04-162026-08-04
The evidence: every observation the count rests on111 observations, rows where composite_level >= 5
each scored day counted, tested 1 or more where composite_level >= 5. An observation marked counted is one 1 or more where composite_level >= 5; those are the 30 that make up the numerator. Every figure below is in rows where composite_level >= 5. The series behind this reaches 2026-08-04.
012026-04-16of 43 sovereigns scored that day0
022026-04-17of 43 sovereigns scored that day0
032026-04-18of 43 sovereigns scored that day0
042026-04-19of 43 sovereigns scored that day0
052026-04-20of 43 sovereigns scored that day0
062026-04-21of 44 sovereigns scored that day0
072026-04-22of 45 sovereigns scored that day0
082026-04-23of 47 sovereigns scored that day0
092026-04-24of 47 sovereigns scored that day0
102026-04-25of 47 sovereigns scored that day0
112026-04-26of 47 sovereigns scored that day0
122026-04-27of 48 sovereigns scored that day0
132026-04-28of 48 sovereigns scored that day0
142026-04-29of 49 sovereigns scored that day0
152026-04-30of 50 sovereigns scored that day0
162026-05-01of 50 sovereigns scored that day0
172026-05-02of 50 sovereigns scored that day0
182026-05-03of 51 sovereigns scored that day0
192026-05-04of 52 sovereigns scored that day0
202026-05-05of 53 sovereigns scored that day0
212026-05-06of 53 sovereigns scored that day0
222026-05-07of 57 sovereigns scored that day0
232026-05-08of 57 sovereigns scored that day0
242026-05-09of 57 sovereigns scored that day0
252026-05-10of 58 sovereigns scored that day0
262026-05-11of 58 sovereigns scored that day0
272026-05-12of 58 sovereigns scored that day0
282026-05-13of 59 sovereigns scored that day0
292026-05-14of 59 sovereigns scored that day0
302026-05-15of 59 sovereigns scored that day0
312026-05-16of 59 sovereigns scored that day0
322026-05-17of 61 sovereigns scored that day0
332026-05-18of 62 sovereigns scored that day0
342026-05-19of 62 sovereigns scored that day0
352026-05-20of 68 sovereigns scored that day0
362026-05-21of 71 sovereigns scored that day0
372026-05-22of 72 sovereigns scored that day0
382026-05-23of 72 sovereigns scored that day0
392026-05-24of 74 sovereigns scored that day0
402026-05-25of 77 sovereigns scored that day0
412026-05-26of 78 sovereigns scored that day0
422026-05-27of 78 sovereigns scored that day0
432026-05-28of 80 sovereigns scored that day0
442026-05-29of 80 sovereigns scored that day0
452026-05-30of 77 sovereigns scored that day0
462026-05-31of 77 sovereigns scored that day0
472026-06-01of 77 sovereigns scored that day0
482026-06-02of 77 sovereigns scored that day0
492026-06-03of 80 sovereigns scored that day0
502026-06-04of 81 sovereigns scored that day0
512026-06-05of 83 sovereigns scored that day0
522026-06-06of 80 sovereigns scored that day0
532026-06-07of 81 sovereigns scored that day0
542026-06-08of 85 sovereigns scored that day0
552026-06-09of 87 sovereigns scored that day0
562026-06-10of 92 sovereigns scored that day0
572026-06-11of 102 sovereigns scored that day0
582026-06-12of 116 sovereigns scored that day0
592026-06-13of 117 sovereigns scored that day0
602026-06-14of 122 sovereigns scored that day0
612026-06-15of 126 sovereigns scored that day0
622026-06-16of 128 sovereigns scored that day0
632026-06-17of 127 sovereigns scored that day0
642026-06-18of 127 sovereigns scored that day0
652026-06-19of 126 sovereigns scored that day0
662026-06-20of 129 sovereigns scored that day0
672026-06-21of 128 sovereigns scored that day0
682026-06-22of 128 sovereigns scored that day0
692026-06-23of 126 sovereigns scored that day0
702026-06-24of 124 sovereigns scored that day0
712026-06-25of 124 sovereigns scored that day0
722026-06-26of 124 sovereigns scored that day0
732026-06-27of 124 sovereigns scored that day0
742026-06-28of 124 sovereigns scored that day4counted
752026-06-29of 124 sovereigns scored that day2counted
762026-06-30of 124 sovereigns scored that day2counted
772026-07-01of 124 sovereigns scored that day2counted
782026-07-02of 124 sovereigns scored that day2counted
792026-07-03of 124 sovereigns scored that day2counted
802026-07-04of 124 sovereigns scored that day2counted
812026-07-05of 124 sovereigns scored that day2counted
822026-07-06of 126 sovereigns scored that day2counted
832026-07-07of 126 sovereigns scored that day2counted
842026-07-08of 125 sovereigns scored that day2counted
852026-07-09of 125 sovereigns scored that day2counted
862026-07-10of 122 sovereigns scored that day2counted
872026-07-11of 118 sovereigns scored that day2counted
882026-07-12of 103 sovereigns scored that day2counted
892026-07-13of 104 sovereigns scored that day2counted
902026-07-14of 99 sovereigns scored that day2counted
912026-07-15of 92 sovereigns scored that day2counted
922026-07-16of 105 sovereigns scored that day2counted
932026-07-17of 131 sovereigns scored that day1counted
942026-07-18of 133 sovereigns scored that day2counted
952026-07-19of 133 sovereigns scored that day2counted
962026-07-20of 131 sovereigns scored that day2counted
972026-07-21of 133 sovereigns scored that day2counted
982026-07-22of 133 sovereigns scored that day2counted
992026-07-23of 133 sovereigns scored that day2counted
1002026-07-24of 133 sovereigns scored that day2counted
1012026-07-25of 133 sovereigns scored that day2counted
1022026-07-26of 134 sovereigns scored that day2counted
1032026-07-27of 135 sovereigns scored that day2counted
1042026-07-28of 138 sovereigns scored that day0
1052026-07-29of 138 sovereigns scored that day0
1062026-07-30of 137 sovereigns scored that day0
1072026-07-31of 137 sovereigns scored that day0
1082026-08-01of 137 sovereigns scored that day0
1092026-08-02of 137 sovereigns scored that day0
1102026-08-03of 137 sovereigns scored that day0
1112026-08-04of 132 sovereigns scored that day0
The same 111 observations as a table
| No | Date | Observation | Figure | Unit | Counted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 2026-04-16 | of 43 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 02 | 2026-04-17 | of 43 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 03 | 2026-04-18 | of 43 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 04 | 2026-04-19 | of 43 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 05 | 2026-04-20 | of 43 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 06 | 2026-04-21 | of 44 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 07 | 2026-04-22 | of 45 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 08 | 2026-04-23 | of 47 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 09 | 2026-04-24 | of 47 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 10 | 2026-04-25 | of 47 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 11 | 2026-04-26 | of 47 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 12 | 2026-04-27 | of 48 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 13 | 2026-04-28 | of 48 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 14 | 2026-04-29 | of 49 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 15 | 2026-04-30 | of 50 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 16 | 2026-05-01 | of 50 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 17 | 2026-05-02 | of 50 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 18 | 2026-05-03 | of 51 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 19 | 2026-05-04 | of 52 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 20 | 2026-05-05 | of 53 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 21 | 2026-05-06 | of 53 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 22 | 2026-05-07 | of 57 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 23 | 2026-05-08 | of 57 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 24 | 2026-05-09 | of 57 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 25 | 2026-05-10 | of 58 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 26 | 2026-05-11 | of 58 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 27 | 2026-05-12 | of 58 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 28 | 2026-05-13 | of 59 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 29 | 2026-05-14 | of 59 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 30 | 2026-05-15 | of 59 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 31 | 2026-05-16 | of 59 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 32 | 2026-05-17 | of 61 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 33 | 2026-05-18 | of 62 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 34 | 2026-05-19 | of 62 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 35 | 2026-05-20 | of 68 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 36 | 2026-05-21 | of 71 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 37 | 2026-05-22 | of 72 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 38 | 2026-05-23 | of 72 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 39 | 2026-05-24 | of 74 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 40 | 2026-05-25 | of 77 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 41 | 2026-05-26 | of 78 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 42 | 2026-05-27 | of 78 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 43 | 2026-05-28 | of 80 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 44 | 2026-05-29 | of 80 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 45 | 2026-05-30 | of 77 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 46 | 2026-05-31 | of 77 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 47 | 2026-06-01 | of 77 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 48 | 2026-06-02 | of 77 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 49 | 2026-06-03 | of 80 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 50 | 2026-06-04 | of 81 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 51 | 2026-06-05 | of 83 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 52 | 2026-06-06 | of 80 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 53 | 2026-06-07 | of 81 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 54 | 2026-06-08 | of 85 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 55 | 2026-06-09 | of 87 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 56 | 2026-06-10 | of 92 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 57 | 2026-06-11 | of 102 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 58 | 2026-06-12 | of 116 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 59 | 2026-06-13 | of 117 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 60 | 2026-06-14 | of 122 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 61 | 2026-06-15 | of 126 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 62 | 2026-06-16 | of 128 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 63 | 2026-06-17 | of 127 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 64 | 2026-06-18 | of 127 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 65 | 2026-06-19 | of 126 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 66 | 2026-06-20 | of 129 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 67 | 2026-06-21 | of 128 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 68 | 2026-06-22 | of 128 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 69 | 2026-06-23 | of 126 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 70 | 2026-06-24 | of 124 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 71 | 2026-06-25 | of 124 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 72 | 2026-06-26 | of 124 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 73 | 2026-06-27 | of 124 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 74 | 2026-06-28 | of 124 sovereigns scored that day | 4 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | yes |
| 75 | 2026-06-29 | of 124 sovereigns scored that day | 2 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | yes |
| 76 | 2026-06-30 | of 124 sovereigns scored that day | 2 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | yes |
| 77 | 2026-07-01 | of 124 sovereigns scored that day | 2 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | yes |
| 78 | 2026-07-02 | of 124 sovereigns scored that day | 2 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | yes |
| 79 | 2026-07-03 | of 124 sovereigns scored that day | 2 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | yes |
| 80 | 2026-07-04 | of 124 sovereigns scored that day | 2 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | yes |
| 81 | 2026-07-05 | of 124 sovereigns scored that day | 2 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | yes |
| 82 | 2026-07-06 | of 126 sovereigns scored that day | 2 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | yes |
| 83 | 2026-07-07 | of 126 sovereigns scored that day | 2 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | yes |
| 84 | 2026-07-08 | of 125 sovereigns scored that day | 2 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | yes |
| 85 | 2026-07-09 | of 125 sovereigns scored that day | 2 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | yes |
| 86 | 2026-07-10 | of 122 sovereigns scored that day | 2 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | yes |
| 87 | 2026-07-11 | of 118 sovereigns scored that day | 2 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | yes |
| 88 | 2026-07-12 | of 103 sovereigns scored that day | 2 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | yes |
| 89 | 2026-07-13 | of 104 sovereigns scored that day | 2 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | yes |
| 90 | 2026-07-14 | of 99 sovereigns scored that day | 2 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | yes |
| 91 | 2026-07-15 | of 92 sovereigns scored that day | 2 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | yes |
| 92 | 2026-07-16 | of 105 sovereigns scored that day | 2 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | yes |
| 93 | 2026-07-17 | of 131 sovereigns scored that day | 1 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | yes |
| 94 | 2026-07-18 | of 133 sovereigns scored that day | 2 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | yes |
| 95 | 2026-07-19 | of 133 sovereigns scored that day | 2 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | yes |
| 96 | 2026-07-20 | of 131 sovereigns scored that day | 2 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | yes |
| 97 | 2026-07-21 | of 133 sovereigns scored that day | 2 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | yes |
| 98 | 2026-07-22 | of 133 sovereigns scored that day | 2 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | yes |
| 99 | 2026-07-23 | of 133 sovereigns scored that day | 2 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | yes |
| 100 | 2026-07-24 | of 133 sovereigns scored that day | 2 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | yes |
| 101 | 2026-07-25 | of 133 sovereigns scored that day | 2 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | yes |
| 102 | 2026-07-26 | of 134 sovereigns scored that day | 2 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | yes |
| 103 | 2026-07-27 | of 135 sovereigns scored that day | 2 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | yes |
| 104 | 2026-07-28 | of 138 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 105 | 2026-07-29 | of 138 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 106 | 2026-07-30 | of 137 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 107 | 2026-07-31 | of 137 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 108 | 2026-08-01 | of 137 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 109 | 2026-08-02 | of 137 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 110 | 2026-08-03 | of 137 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
| 111 | 2026-08-04 | of 132 sovereigns scored that day | 0 | rows where composite_level >= 5 | no |
ResolvesResolves OCCURRED if at least one country_risk_history row on the latest date at or before 2026-09-08 carries composite_level >= 5. Resolves DID NOT OCCUR if none does. Held as PARTIAL if the latest available date is more than two days before 2026-09-08.
Source of recordcountry_risk_history (iso3, date, composite_level), the daily append from Varsko's composite scoring
Settles on2026-09-08