Will the United States and Iran reach a formal nuclear agreement by the end of Q4 2026?
What moved
US military operations targeted Iran for a seventh consecutive night; oil markets are pricing the risk of Iranian retaliation and potential supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz.
The market transmission
The escalation raises near-term tension around Iranian oil export flows and regional stability. Brent has scope to move higher if the strikes trigger a meaningful Iranian response that threatens transit or production capacity. Downside risk to equities and risk assets if the conflict widens; safe-haven demand supports gold and rates duration. The transmission is through supply risk and risk-off positioning rather than any immediate capacity loss.
What would change this
The strikes are described as ongoing, not as a concluded operation. Iranian retaliation is not confirmed; markets are pricing possibility, not certainty. Hormuz remains open and Iranian production is not offline. The risk is contingent on how Iran responds and whether that response includes energy infrastructure or transit disruption. Real rates remain elevated, which dampens gold's safe-haven bid relative to yield-seeking flows.
Directional leans
Brent ▲ moderategold ▲ lowequities ▼ moderate