Will the United States and Iran reach a formal nuclear agreement by the end of Q4 2026?
What moved
Trump resumed strikes on Iran after a ceasefire was halted less than a month earlier; risk-off positioning across equities and safe-haven bid into rates and gold as geopolitical escalation widens.
The market transmission
The resumption of strikes after a brief ceasefire creates near-term uncertainty around Iran policy and conflict trajectory. Risk appetite likely to contract as investors price wider regional instability. Safe-haven flows into USTs and gold may strengthen; equities exposed to Middle East supply disruption or elevated insurance costs in shipping face pressure.
What would change this
The market impact depends on enforcement and scale of strikes, not headlines alone. A limited resumption after a failed ceasefire may be priced as continuation rather than step-change. Actual oil supply disruption hinges on whether Iranian production or Strait transit is threatened; absent that, safe-haven bid competes with yield, and gold may underperform if real rates remain elevated.
Directional leans
UST 10Y ▼ moderategold ▲ lowequities ▼ moderate