Will the United States and Iran reach a formal nuclear agreement by the end of Q4 2026?
What moved
Netanyahu and Trump meet at the White House Tuesday after tensions over Iran strikes in February; the bilateral framing signals no near-term policy rupture on Middle East military action.
The market transmission
The meeting resets expectations around US-Israel coordination on Iran and regional conflict. Markets had priced friction into risk appetite; a functional relationship reduces immediate escalation risk but clarifies that US-Israeli military posture toward Iran remains intact. This is a positioning reset rather than a policy shift.
What would change this
The meeting is a confidence signal after public discord, but it does not change the underlying Iran sanctions enforcement posture or Israeli military capability. Markets should not confuse diplomatic repair with policy reversal. Downplaying frayed ties is standard diplomatic choreography; the absence of a breakdown does not imply a strategic reset. Real rates and dollar strength remain the dominant drivers of safe-haven flows; this bilateral event is secondary.