Sun 09 Aug 2026 · 14:18 UTCNot investment advice. Automated, AI and OSINT based. May contain errors.
← Chokepoints

Bab el-Mandeb

Elevated
Transit data to 31 Jul · IMF PortWatch derived, lags a few days
Transits
82% of baseline
29 a day against a 12-month average of 35
Week on week
11%
Trend

7-day average 29 transits/day, down 18% vs the trailing 12-month average. Source: IMF PortWatch, data to 2026-07-31.

The market lens

The southern gate of the Red Sea between Yemen and Djibouti. Disruption here does not trap cargo; it forces the Cape of Good Hope detour, adding roughly ten to fourteen days per voyage. The cost shows up first in container freight rates and war-risk premia, not in crude supply.

What to watch
Houthi attack tempo and the reach of their targeting (which flags, which cargoes).
Underwriters' war-risk pricing for Red Sea transits, and liner announcements about returning or leaving.
Naval escort coverage and its credibility with major carriers.
Recent signals touching Bab el-Mandeb