Bab el-Mandeb
3ElevatedTransit data to 28 Aug · IMF PortWatch derived, lags a few days
81% of baseline
28 a day against a 12-month average of 35
−10.5%
7-day average 28 transits/day, down 19% vs the trailing 12-month average. Source: IMF PortWatch, data to 2026-08-28.
Compare two weeks
53 weeks held35.9 transits/day in the week to 2025-08-29 (103% of baseline), against 28.1 in the week to 2026-08-28 (81% of baseline) — down 21.7%.
Seven-day averages, sampled weekly, from IMF PortWatch's published daily series, 2025-08-29 to 2026-08-28. One baseline across every week, so a share moves for one reason only. Reconstructed from the published record, not an archive this product watched accumulate.
Disrupted for 35 days, since 2026-07-25, running 18% below baseline on average.
2 disruption episodes in the last 12 months; the current one began 2026-07-25 and has run 35 days.
18% below baseline on average, with a trough of 14 transits a day.
20% below baseline on average, with a trough of 13 transits a day.
The southern gate of the Red Sea between Yemen and Djibouti. Disruption here does not trap cargo; it forces the Cape of Good Hope detour, adding roughly ten to fourteen days per voyage. The cost shows up first in container freight rates and war-risk premia, not in crude supply.
Houthi attack tempo and the reach of their targeting (which flags, which cargoes).
Underwriters' war-risk pricing for Red Sea transits, and liner announcements about returning or leaving.
Naval escort coverage and its credibility with major carriers.