Sun 09 Aug 2026 · 14:17 UTCNot investment advice. Automated, AI and OSINT based. May contain errors.
← Chokepoints
Strait of Hormuz
SevereTransit data to 31 Jul · IMF PortWatch derived, lags a few days
Transits
9% of baseline
4 a day against a 12-month average of 42
Week on week
▲ 18%
Trend
7-day average 4 transits/day, down 91% vs the trailing 12-month average. Source: IMF PortWatch, data to 2026-07-31.
The market lens
The exit from the Gulf and the single most consequential oil chokepoint: roughly a fifth of seaborne crude and most Gulf LNG passes through it. It has no maritime alternative. The partial workarounds are overland pipelines (Saudi East-West, Abu Dhabi to Fujairah), so a closure prices as a supply shock, not a rerouting cost.
What to watch
Tanker transits against the trailing baseline, and war-risk insurance quotes for Gulf loadings.
Iranian and US naval activity: boardings, seizures, escort arrangements.
Statements from Tehran that attach conditions to transit, and OPEC spare-capacity signals that would cushion an outage.
Recent signals touching Strait of Hormuz
35d ago
Iran opened talks with Saudi Arabia and Oman on Strait of Hormuz transit; oil prices fell as markets read reduced escalation risk in the Gulf.
35d ago
Oman secures Gulf state backing for a plan to let Iran collect voluntary fees through Hormuz; a negotiated resolution framework reduces the immediate risk of transit disruption but leaves enforcement mechanisms and US acceptance unresolved.
35d ago
Iran reasserted control of the Strait of Hormuz after Trump halted a bombing campaign; tanker transits and regional oil flow pricing remain subject to escalation risk without credible de-escalation talks.
25d ago
Iran convened talks with Saudi Arabia and Oman on Hormuz transit; no disruption risk materialized and tanker markets showed no reaction.
25d ago
Five-month US-Israel war on Iran has closed and reopened the Strait of Hormuz, raising fuel costs for American consumers; oil markets remain volatile amid unresolved conflict and unclear duration.
25d ago
Japan announced plans to fund overseas pipeline projects in the Middle East to reduce Hormuz transit dependence; the move signals long-term structural diversification away from chokepoint risk but carries no immediate supply or pricing impact.