Strait of Hormuz
5SevereTransit data to 28 Aug · IMF PortWatch derived, lags a few days
6% of baseline
4 a day against a 12-month average of 72
+14.8%
7-day average 4 transits/day, down 94% vs the pre-2026-02-13 average. Baseline anchored to conditions before 2026-02-13, when transits fell 76% and stayed down. A trailing average would absorb a closure this long and report it as the new normal. Source: IMF PortWatch, data to 2026-08-28.
Compare two weeks
53 weeks held94.6 transits/day in the week to 2025-08-29 (130% of baseline), against 4.4 in the week to 2026-08-28 (6% of baseline) — down 95.3%.
Seven-day averages, sampled weekly, from IMF PortWatch's published daily series, 2025-08-29 to 2026-08-28. One baseline across every week, so a share moves for one reason only. Reconstructed from the published record, not an archive this product watched accumulate.
Disrupted for 191 days, since 2026-02-19, running 82% below baseline on average.
2 disruption episodes in the last 12 months; the current one began 2026-02-19 and has run 191 days.
82% below baseline on average, with a trough of 0 transits a day.
20% below baseline on average, with a trough of 31 transits a day.
The exit from the Gulf and the single most consequential oil chokepoint: roughly a fifth of seaborne crude and most Gulf LNG passes through it. It has no maritime alternative. The partial workarounds are overland pipelines (Saudi East-West, Abu Dhabi to Fujairah), so a closure prices as a supply shock, not a rerouting cost.
Tanker transits against the trailing baseline, and war-risk insurance quotes for Gulf loadings.
Iranian and US naval activity: boardings, seizures, escort arrangements.
Statements from Tehran that attach conditions to transit, and OPEC spare-capacity signals that would cushion an outage.