Sun 09 Aug 2026 · 14:24 UTCNot investment advice. Automated, AI and OSINT based. May contain errors.
← Foresight
Judgment readOil · Gold · FX17 Jul
Will the United States and Iran reach a formal nuclear agreement by the end of Q4 2026?
unlikelyno number: judgmentlow confidence
020 to 45100
by end Q4 2026
Active hostilities and deep mutual distrust make a durable formal agreement a hard ask on this horizon; the base rate for such deals landing inside a single quarter is low.
Players and wants
United States verifiable limits on enrichment and a durable freeze, with domestic political cover
Iran sanctions relief and regime security guarantees without conceding breakout capacity
Israel and Gulf states no deal that leaves Iranian enrichment intact; a veto on Western concessions
What would change this
- a de-escalation at the Strait of Hormuz that reopens a diplomatic channel
- a US or Israeli domestic shift that changes the appetite for a deal
- an Iranian economic crisis that raises the value of sanctions relief
Resolves Resolves 'occurred' on a signed or publicly-confirmed US-Iran nuclear agreement (a JCPOA successor or interim deal) by 31 December 2026. Resolves 'did_not_occur' otherwise. Source of record: US State Department and IAEA statements.
This is a structured-judgment read, not an engine forecast. It carries no probability number, only a plausibility read in words, and it is scored openly.