Will there be a major military escalation at the Strait of Hormuz this quarter (a state-level strike, seizure campaign, or attempted closure), rather than continued brinkmanship?

A major escalation is a single decision-maker's call, and the public record genuinely supports either path: the cost of acting is visible and already priced, while the resolve behind the threat is not. We hold both paths at their true weights rather than forcing a lean, and a primary-source read on the decider's resolve is what moves the distribution decisively.

Position lens argues against carrying a directional chokepoint position on the public picture alone. Size only once a network read or a hard tripwire resolves the decider's intent.