Will OPEC+ agree a substantial coordinated production cut at its next ministerial, rather than a token or no measure?
Horizon — at the next OPEC+ ministerial
No settlement date: this horizon names an event rather than a date, and the criterion names none either, so the pass holds this read rather than guessing when its window shut. It reaches the track record when the event is dated.
Resolves 'occurred' if OPEC+ announces a coordinated cut of at least 1 million barrels per day in genuine supply (not a paper reallocation of quotas already exceeded).
The full wording is at the foot of this page.
- 01ActorCohesive producers — want a deep coordinated cut to defend price into a softening demand picture, and are willing to carry more of it themselves.
- 02ActorSwing producer — holds the effective veto and currently leans against a cut, prioritising volume and market share. The pivot the whole call rests on.
- 03ActorSmaller members — sit neutral and follow the consensus once the two heavyweights settle which way it goes.
- 04Tripwirethe swing producer's public stance and signalling going into the meeting
- 05Tripwirethe other actors' public position and signalling
- 06Tripwirethe smaller producers' positions firming for or against a deeper cut
- 07ReasoningRun the OPEC+ decision forward and some measure almost always clears, because the cohesive producers want it and carry it. The live question is whether the swing producer lets it be substantial or waters it down to something marginal. That split, not the headline group cohesion, is the part of the distribution your spread is exposed to.
Run the OPEC+ decision forward and some measure almost always clears, because the cohesive producers want it and carry it. The live question is whether the swing producer lets it be substantial or waters it down to something marginal. That split, not the headline group cohesion, is the part of the distribution your spread is exposed to.
Cohesive producers — want a deep coordinated cut to defend price into a softening demand picture, and are willing to carry more of it themselves.
Swing producer — holds the effective veto and currently leans against a cut, prioritising volume and market share. The pivot the whole call rests on.
Smaller members — sit neutral and follow the consensus once the two heavyweights settle which way it goes.
the swing producer's public stance and signalling going into the meeting
the other actors' public position and signalling
the smaller producers' positions firming for or against a deeper cut
argues for expressing the view through a calendar spread rather than flat price, sized small until a network read or a pre-meeting signal resolves the swing producer's stance.
Resolves 'occurred' if OPEC+ announces a coordinated cut of at least 1 million barrels per day in genuine supply (not a paper reallocation of quotas already exceeded). Resolves 'partial' for a smaller or largely-paper cut, 'did_not_occur' for no cut.
Source of record
the official OPEC ministerial communique — named in the criterion