Sun 09 Aug 2026 · 14:20 UTCNot investment advice. Automated, AI and OSINT based. May contain errors.
← Foresight
Judgment readEquities · FX · Metals · Ags17 Jul
Will the United States impose broad new tariffs on Chinese goods this quarter?
roughly even chanceno number: judgmentlow confidence
045 to 55100
by end Q4 2026
Tariff policy has been an active lever and could move either way inside a quarter, so the honest read is a genuine coin toss rather than a confident call.
Players and wants
United States leverage on trade and industrial policy, with political benefit at home
China to avoid a tariff spiral while defending its export base
US importers and markets predictability; they price tariff risk into equities and the currency
What would change this
- a trade-negotiation breakdown or a fresh flashpoint
- the US political calendar and the administration's posture
- a Chinese retaliation that raises the cost of escalation
Resolves Resolves 'occurred' if the US announces new tariffs covering at least USD 50 billion of annual Chinese imports within 90 days. Resolves 'did_not_occur' otherwise. Source of record: USTR announcements and the Federal Register.
This is a structured-judgment read, not an engine forecast. It carries no probability number, only a plausibility read in words, and it is scored openly.