Sun 27 Sep 2026 · 19:26 UTCNot investment advice. Automated, AI and OSINT based. May contain errors.
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Will the United States impose broad new tariffs on Chinese goods this quarter?
roughly even chance
Judgment readEquities · FX · Metals · Ags17 Jul

Will the United States impose broad new tariffs on Chinese goods this quarter?

roughly even chanceno number: the engine is not validated on this questionlow confidence

Horizon — by end Q4 2026

Scored to 2026-10-15: the criterion says “within 90 days”, 77 days before the horizon above. The criterion is what the read is settled against.

Resolves

Resolves 'occurred' if the US announces new tariffs covering at least USD 50 billion of annual Chinese imports within 90 days. Resolves 'did_not_occur' otherwise.

The band, and what any point on it would mean
The band, and what any point on it would mean45 to 55 per cent
050100
roughly even chancethe read as it stands
This read carries no probability and the band is not scrubbable here. Putting a figure under the cursor would give a judgment read a number by the back door, which is the one thing the domain exists to prevent.
Earlier reads First read, no history yet. This question has been generated once, so there is no earlier band position to show and none has been drawn.
The evidenceno counted series
This read carries no counted series, so there is no observation ledger to show. What the read rests on is set out below in the criterion and the drivers.
What this read rests on7 inputs · as fed 2026-07-17, not yet frozen
  1. 01ActorUnited States — leverage on trade and industrial policy, with political benefit at home
  2. 02ActorChina — to avoid a tariff spiral while defending its export base
  3. 03ActorUS importers and markets — predictability; they price tariff risk into equities and the currency
  4. 04Would change ita trade-negotiation breakdown or a fresh flashpoint
  5. 05Would change itthe US political calendar and the administration's posture
  6. 06Would change ita Chinese retaliation that raises the cost of escalation
  7. 07ReasoningTariff policy has been an active lever and could move either way inside a quarter, so the honest read is a genuine coin toss rather than a confident call.

Tariff policy has been an active lever and could move either way inside a quarter, so the honest read is a genuine coin toss rather than a confident call.

Players and wants

United States — leverage on trade and industrial policy, with political benefit at home

China — to avoid a tariff spiral while defending its export base

US importers and markets — predictability; they price tariff risk into equities and the currency

What would change this

a trade-negotiation breakdown or a fresh flashpoint

the US political calendar and the administration's posture

a Chinese retaliation that raises the cost of escalation

Resolves

Resolves 'occurred' if the US announces new tariffs covering at least USD 50 billion of annual Chinese imports within 90 days. Resolves 'did_not_occur' otherwise.

Source of record

USTR announcements and the Federal Register — named in the criterion

This is a structured-judgment read, not an engine forecast. It carries no probability number, only a plausibility read in words, and it is scored openly.