Will the United States and Iran reach a formal nuclear agreement by the end of Q4 2026?
What moved
US and Iran agreed to halt attacks and begin talks in Doha on 30 June after Hormuz tensions; risk-off positioning into safe havens unwinds as escalation de-escalates.
The market transmission
The de-escalation reduces the immediate supply disruption risk to Hormuz transit, which carries roughly a fifth of seaborne oil. Oil contracts that priced in chokepoint closure risk now face a bid reduction. Simultaneously, the move lowers the equity risk-off bid and reduces demand for duration and safe-haven hedges. Real rates and growth expectations reassert themselves as the conflict premium compresses.
What would change this
The agreed halt is a statement of intent, not yet enforced action. Talks in Doha do not resolve the underlying US-Iran strategic dispute; a single incident during negotiations or a breakdown after them could reverse the bid entirely. The market repricing assumes talks hold and do not collapse within days. Hormuz flows are already constrained by insurance and escort costs; even with military de-escalation, those friction costs remain until enforcement confidence fully settles.
Directional leans
BRENT ▼ moderateWTI ▼ moderateUST10Y ▼ moderateUSDJPY ▼ moderate