Iranian strikes in spring 2026 took Ras Laffan Trains 4 & 6 and Pearl GTL Train 2 offline; QatarEnergy estimates 12.8 million tonnes per year of LNG capacity sidelined for three to five years, with Asian buyers absorbing nearly 90% of Middle East regional exports.
What moved
Iranian strikes in spring 2026 took Ras Laffan Trains 4 & 6 and Pearl GTL Train 2 offline; QatarEnergy estimates 12.8 million tonnes per year of LNG capacity sidelined for three to five years, with Asian buyers absorbing nearly 90% of Middle East regional exports.
The market transmission
The outage removes a material slice of global LNG supply at a time when spare capacity in liquefaction is already constrained. Asia faces the largest immediate exposure given its dependence on Middle East LNG. European LNG import share from the region is smaller at 7-11%, but global LNG markets are integrated and high spot prices in Asia pull cargoes away from Europe. The three- to five-year repair timeline keeps this capacity offline through multiple heating seasons and the recovery window for competing producers to gain market share.
What would change this
The outage is confirmed and material, but three to five years is a long tail and markets are already pricing in the constraint. The mechanism is most acute in the near term as spot cargoes become scarce; further out, demand destruction and investment in competing LNG projects (the five megaprojects mentioned in the headline) will partially offset the lost capacity. Repair timelines can slip, which would extend the price support, or accelerate if reconstruction prioritizes speed.
Directional leans
TTF ▲ moderate