Will the United States and Iran reach a formal nuclear agreement by the end of Q4 2026?
What moved
Oil exports from the Gulf rose to over 60% of pre-war levels; Goldman Sachs notes the difficulty in tracking flows due to limited regional data during the conflict.
The market transmission
A partial recovery in Gulf crude exports signals the market is pricing a less severe supply disruption than was feared at the conflict's onset, though the data opacity means price signals are trading on incomplete information. Oil futures have room to reprice sharply if actual exports either exceed current estimates or fall back below them. The 60% figure itself is less important than the fact that exports are happening at all; markets have likely already baked in some recovery, so the news value lies in confirmation rather than surprise.
What would change this
The headline could read as dovish for oil, but Goldman's own caveat about data quality undermines confidence in the 60% figure. Limited visibility into Gulf flows means traders are operating on estimates, not fact. A sudden revision downward or a fresh disruption could move crude sharply, since the baseline is uncertain. Real rates remain high, so crude is not driven solely by supply; demand expectations and carry dynamics matter too.