Will the United States and Iran reach a formal nuclear agreement by the end of Q4 2026?
What moved
Trump threatens to destroy Iran amid new US strikes; markets price elevated risk of broader Iran conflict and potential oil supply disruption.
The market transmission
The threat and ongoing strikes raise the probability of escalation into a wider Iran conflict, which would threaten the Strait of Hormuz and roughly a fifth of global seaborne oil supply. Oil and energy equities reprice upward on supply risk; safe-haven flows into treasuries and gold compete with yield effects on rates. The timing and scope of any disruption remain uncertain, holding back maximum repricing.
What would change this
Threats and strikes are not the same as a sustained blockade or supply loss. Markets have priced some Iran tension for months; a widening of the current strikes into infrastructure disruption or retaliation that cuts flows would be the repricing event. Real rates remain high, which dampens the safe-haven bid in gold relative to a low-rate environment.
Directional leans
BRENT ▲ highWTI ▲ highGOLD ▲ moderateUST10Y ▼ moderate